Keep an Eye on the Canadian Border
The political backlash was inevitable. One in 5 Canadians now lists rising immigration levels as a top concern. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his immigration minister have said the system needs to be brought “under control.” But this acknowledgment comes too late to prevent an inevitable breakdown in the strategic relationship between Canada and its neighbor to the south.
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Ottawa’s decision to tighten immigration policies has created a surge of crossing into New York, New Hampshire and Vermont.
Changes to Canada’s immigration policies are making the world’s longest border a pressure point for illegal migration and a record-setting number of asylum claims. Backtracking on years of overly lenient policy, Canada’s Liberal government recently announced caps on temporary foreign workers and international students. The government also decided in August to end the policy of allowing visitors to apply for work permits from inside the country.
This means that a bubble of temporary work permits in Canada is about to burst. The U.S. should brace for impact.
Canada currently has roughly 2.8 million non-permanent residents who hold work permits. Their pathway to permanent residency is being reduced to roughly 250,000 open spots. Additionally, over the next three years, 396,235 international students will see their work permits expire. The Canadian government has signaled that these permits will no longer be extended.
Once their visas expire, immigrants can either return home or go the undocumented route. For many, this will mean trying their chances at the U.S. border.
The surge of migrants heading south from Canada has already begun. Migrant encounters by U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at the northern border have hit record highs in 2024, with more than 180,000 between January and August. In 2021 there were 27,180 encounters along the entire northern border. In 2023 there were 189,402 encounters, a 600% increase over the two years.
The surge has already severely taxed the resources available to the CBP officers processing asylum and other claims. This is particularly true for the 295 miles of border spanned by New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. More than half of CBP apprehensions at the U.S.-Canada border now happen in this region.
Increased immigration has come to play an important role in the Canadian economy because of the country’s dearth of skilled workers, low birthrate, and local labor shortages. It is the main driver of Canada’s population growth, which has been far outpacing all other Group of Seven countries. But the Canadian government failed to take into account needed growth in the support systems required for such a large population increase. Canada is suffering severe housing shortages, rising unemployment rates, and ever-growing wait times for the national healthcare system.
The political backlash was inevitable. One in 5 Canadians now lists rising immigration levels as a top concern. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his immigration minister have said the system needs to be brought “under control.” But this acknowledgment comes too late to prevent an inevitable breakdown in the strategic relationship between Canada and its neighbor to the south.
The U.S. should send a clear message that it isn’t planning to compensate for Canada’s past policy errors. It’s time for Ottawa to devote the necessary resources to border control. Canada needs to deal with the problem it has created.
Ms. Tronnes is executive director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Center for North American Prosperity and Security. Mr. Barutciski is a lawyer and a professor of international affairs at Toronto’s York University.